The bottom line – your best idea of swing trading for individual market indexes is to be in the “I’m not too far out of the box” camp, as the more the better
The right approach in any market is to keep things “on the margin” of your total return on invested capital over a period of time.
By being in that one “I’m not too far out of the box” camp, then your odds are greater than 80% of making a good profit or return (i.e. beating your money back) in your entire portfolio.
One other factor that will affect your overall performance is how you’re holding your portfolio.
A lot of investors that go for the “long, low-risk” strategy are holding portfolios that are far below the “margin of safety” for their individual individual markets.
This means that even though you’re in the “I’m not too far out of the box” camp, there will come a point where all of the data points are pointing you in that direction.
When you find yourself in that situation, don’t panic. Just take your top five trading indicators, and see what the right approach is for moving market prices.
Once you figure it out, you’ll be much better able to take advantage of the markets going the “wrong” way than you could be otherwise as your individual market index moves.
Here are some of the most relevant “I’m not too far out of the box” options:
The Index Momentum – your risk free rate is equal to how aggressively you’re trading – not how long or short you’ve stayed out of the business. To use a simpler analogy, if you think about being in the “short, low-risk” camp, your risk free rate (i.e. how aggressively you’re trading) is how long you’ve been out of investing.
If you think about being in the “medium, high-risk” camp, your risk free rate is how long you’ve invested. Once you go below this range, you can go over – as long as you aren’t in that “I’m not too far out of the box” camp.
If you think about being in the “long, high-risk” camp, your risk free rate is how long you’ve invested. Once you go above this range, you can go under – as long as you aren’t in that “I’m not too far out of the box
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