This is a tricky question and the answer varies from one trader to the next. One trader will like to see some swing trading activity with the first two dates, and another will like to see some more volume with the first three (in our example, there are 2 months to a year between the 1st and 3rd dates). That’s a bit of a tough call, but it really depends on how much time is left in the calendar. Here are some general guidelines:
For the 1st date: If there’s lots of turnover (i.e. you see a lot of volume on some dates but not others), then you’re probably on to something. The “swing” is just a good indicator of how fast your price is moving. For this date, it’s not about how low the price ends up being, it’s about how close the price is to it.
For the 2nd date: This date only represents a small portion of the date, because it means less trading history (i.e. the 2nd date means less trading history than the 1st date does). I personally prefer the first and second dates as the best times to use when getting started, because you can buy at the low end of the range, sell at the high end of it, and still get the same profit.
If you’re not sure if the trade you’re making is worthwhile and you’re not sure about when the trading starts, the best time to check out the 1st and 2nd date is probably when the volume is at its highest. We’re not looking for volume at these dates, we just want to see some movement and see if we’re getting a good return. It’s also important that we’re not looking at low-volume dates; for this you should use an “open” date to determine if you’re interested. If you’re not sure if the trade is worth it, just wait a couple days.
If you want to use swing trading on the 3rd date, but you want volume at these dates instead of less volume than the two dates you’re considering, I’d say look for some low volume dates to start trading. Again, for the 1st date, look for volumes below where the “swing” date falls (i.e. when the price ends up closer to the middle) and for the 2nd, look for volumes near where the “swing” date would end (i.e. when the price would end up closer to the lower end
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